Africa’s EV Transition, Made in China? What We’re Exploring

Chinese cars, across both internal combustion and electric segments, have become one of the most significant forces reshaping Africa's automotive markets in just a few years. In South Africa, Chinese brands now account for roughly one in every ten new vehicles sold, up from low single digits just five years ago, making them among the fastest growing players in the market. 

In Ethiopia, the shift is even more dramatic. Following a ban on imports of internal combustion vehicles in early 2024, electric vehicles now make up 60% of car sales, with low-cost Chinese models dominating this new market, and accelerating transport electrification at a pace rarely seen elsewhere on the continent.

These developments are unfolding as China's domestic auto industry grapples with overcapacity and a fierce price war. As competition at home squeezes margins and production outpaces demand, emerging markets, including those across Africa, are becoming an increasingly important destination for ultra-low-cost Chinese EVs and hybrids. 

This dynamic creates both opportunity and risk. On one hand, affordable Chinese EVs could help accelerate Africa’s long-delayed vehicle electrification, displacing older, highly polluting second-hand imports and lowering the cost of cleaner mobility. On the other hand, the widening gap between surging vehicle imports and limited domestic value creation raises fundamental questions about who captures the economic upside, and how exposed African markets may be to shifts in China’s industrial policy, pricing strategies, or export behavior.

At the African Tech Futures Lab (ATFL), we see this moment as a defining case study of how global technological shifts intersect with Africa’s own ambitions around EV adoption,  industrial development and manufacturing, long-term mobility systems, and energy infrastructure.

Over the coming months, ATFL will convene and support African experts and relevant global peers to analyse how China’s industrial strategies, pricing dynamics, and export patterns are influencing EV uptake across key African markets. 

We will also examine emerging efforts by Chinese automakers to deepen their local footprint, including through local production, joint ventures, and other forms of in-market presence, and assess what these moves could realistically mean for domestic value creation. 

Finally, we will consider how these dynamics intersect with the interests and responses of other major actors, including the United States, Europe, and India, as competition over EV supply chains, standards, and export markets intensifies.

While our initial focus is on passenger vehicles, we will also explore the fast-growing electric two- and three-wheeler segment, where similar dynamics are emerging.

Our goal is to surface early insights and practical recommendations for decision-makers, while identifying priority areas for further research—both for ATFL and the broader EV policy and research community. 

Watch this space.